Forecast methodology

Read the ocean.
Trust the signal.

What every number means, how SWELLRADAR reaches a surf decision and where model guidance ends.

01

Marine models

Wave, period, direction, wind, sea level and temperature.

02

Break profile

Orientation, swell window, tide response, wind and hazards.

03

Verification

Ocean stations grade saved forecasts; community reads stay separate.

04

Decision

Score, confidence and Best Surf Window—with visible limits.

Forecast glossary

Every signal,
plainly explained.

No weather jargon for its own sake. These are the core readings that shape a SWELLRADAR decision.

01

Wave height

The modelled offshore sea state.

SWELLRADAR displays significant wave height at the selected marine sample. It is not a guaranteed breaking-wave face: bathymetry, shelter, refraction, sandbanks and local wind can transform the swell before it reaches the lineup.

02

Swell period

The time between swell crests.

Period is measured in seconds. Longer-period swell has travelled with more organisation and normally carries more energy, reaches farther around headlands and produces stronger surf than short-period swell of the same height.

03

Swell energy

A comparable deep-water power estimate.

The kW/m value estimates power per metre of wave crest from swell height and period. It is useful for comparing swell events, but it is not the impact force of a breaking wave and must be read with the local break profile.

04

Wind

Direction relative to the break matters.

SWELLRADAR compares forecast wind direction with the orientation of a calibrated break. Offshore or light winds often improve shape, while onshore wind can reduce quality. Cliffs, valleys and thermal effects can create local differences.

05

Tide

Phase plus a break-specific working window.

Tide height and turning points come from the marine model. At calibrated breaks, they are assessed against a preferred tide profile. Banks, reefs, access channels and recent storms can still change how a spot responds.

06

Confidence

How much evidence supports the call.

Confidence combines freshness, data completeness, agreement between available models and—where enough history exists—performance against independent ocean observations. Divergent models place a ceiling on confidence, even when the underlying data is complete. This is an evidence index, not a probability of surf or a safety guarantee.

07

Surf Score

A 0–100 suitability signal.

For calibrated breaks, the score combines wave height, period, swell direction, wind, tide fit and confidence. Marine reference points and unverified break profiles remain unscored rather than receiving invented precision.

08

Your Fit

A separate personal suitability signal.

Your Fit begins with your chosen ability, board and wave range. Private session check-ins can then tune the preferred range, board, period, clean-wind bias and familiar breaks. Calibration depth stays visible, and the general Surf Score remains separate.

Trust system

The forecast
remembers.

Forecast snapshots are later matched with suitable ocean-station observations. Performance is measured separately at 6, 24 and 48 hours so a strong short-range result cannot hide a weak long-range one.

Live & modelled

The interface distinguishes forecast feeds from independent observations.

Observed alignment

Wave height and period errors are tracked by spot, region and horizon.

Correction firewall

Learning needs a stable multi-day record; unstable or distant evidence is held.

Bounded change

Any automatic correction remains small, traceable and reversible.

Help & answers

Questions,
answered.

The useful answers—without turning the forecast into a manual.

01How accurate is SWELLRADAR?

Accuracy varies by coastline, forecast horizon, station coverage and weather pattern. SWELLRADAR separates short- and longer-range performance, shows model agreement and compares saved forecasts with independent observations where suitable stations exist. Confidence is reduced when the evidence is incomplete or divergent.

02Why can the breaking waves look different from the forecast?

Marine models describe an offshore grid, while the break transforms that energy through depth, reef or sandbank shape, shelter, currents and local wind. A 1.5 m offshore forecast therefore does not mean every wave will break at exactly 1.5 m.

03Why can distant spots show the same wave height?

Different marine samples can independently round to the same tenth of a metre. Matching height does not mean matching conditions: compare swell period, direction, timing and model agreement. Only nearby breaks assigned to the same offshore model cell share one marine run; the displayed height is not a measured wave face at the break.

04What does Calibrated mean?

A calibrated break has a reviewed location and a usable profile for direction, wind and tide response. It can receive a Surf Score. Community-mapped breaks remain visible, but SWELLRADAR avoids presenting them with the same level of certainty.

05What is the difference between modelled and observed data?

Modelled data is a forecast produced for a marine grid. A quality-checked forecast has passed source and plausibility checks; that alone does not prove historical accuracy. Sensor-observed data comes from an independent station such as a buoy. Stations can be distant or delayed, so SWELLRADAR shows their status and only uses close, recent matches for near-term offshore adjustment. Voluntary surfer reports remain an optional, separate community layer.

06Why are surfer reports separate from the forecast?

People choose whether and when to share conditions. A quiet reporting period says nothing reliable about the surf, and a few reports may not represent the whole lineup. The optional community layer shows anonymous, recent reports from signed-in surfers, with one active read per account and break in a six-hour window. These reports do not validate, correct or replace the marine forecast, confidence or Surf Score. Independent ocean-station observations are used for forecast verification when suitable.

07How often is the forecast updated?

SWELLRADAR rechecks the provider regularly and shows when the forecast was retrieved. That retrieval time is not the issue time of the underlying best-match wave model, which the feed does not supply. Older cached forecasts and incomplete feeds are labelled; forecasts beyond the protected window are withheld rather than presented as current.

08What does Forecast Shift compare?

Forecast Shift aligns the current retrieved marine forecast with the previous verified snapshot for the same ocean grid. It compares matching times for wave height, swell period and wind, then recalculates the model-only Best Surf Window. It is a snapshot comparison, not proof that two distinct source-model runs were issued.

09How does the Swell Event Tracker detect an event?

It smooths the offshore swell-energy signal across the next seven days and looks for a meaningful rise above the near-term baseline. Only a sufficiently strong change in energy, swell height or period is promoted as an arrival-to-peak event. Otherwise SWELLRADAR labels the signal steady or quiet instead of inventing a swell. The timing remains model guidance because bathymetry and shelter can shift what reaches the break.

10What is a Swell Watch?

A Swell Watch follows one distinct offshore energy event and triggers when its modelled arrival enters your chosen lead time. You can require a minimum peak energy and confidence. It is deliberately separate from a Surf Window alert: an arriving swell can still meet poor wind, tide or local hazards, so it is not a recommendation to paddle out.

11How does the Best Surf Window work?

The planner evaluates the forecast hour by hour and looks for a coherent window—not one isolated peak. At calibrated breaks it weighs swell, period, direction, wind, tide fit and confidence, then can personalise the ranking around your level, board, time and travel limit.

12What does My Radar show?

My Radar turns your saved breaks into a personal coast briefing. It highlights the strongest next surf window, compares saved spots, shows a seven-day decision strip and surfaces distinct approaching swell events without mixing them with complete surf recommendations.

13How does Nearby Decision Radar decide whether to stay or move?

It compares the nearest mapped breaks with complete forecast coverage and ranks them using surf quality, confidence, calibration and—when available—Your Fit. It does not use generic popularity. If nearby data is incomplete, the comparison stays cautious rather than filling the panel with invented precision.

14What do the map layers control?

Calibrated, Mapped and Coast filter location quality. Pulse shows fresh anonymous surfer observations, Swell shows distinct modelled energy events, and 24h, 3d or 7d changes the event horizon. These controls change what is visible on the map, not the underlying spot forecast.

15Why can a spot have no score or complete outlook?

SWELLRADAR only scores a reviewed break when the required marine run and break profile are available. A recovering feed, incomplete seven-day coverage or an unverified coastal location can therefore remain visible without a score. Missing evidence is shown as missing instead of being replaced with synthetic conditions.

16What is the difference between Surf Score and Your Fit?

Surf Score describes the forecast setup at the break. Your Fit asks how well that setup matches you. It starts from your surf profile and, after you log sessions, gradually learns from the conditions, boards and breaks connected with your strongest surfs. Your private history never turns a weak forecast into a strong general Surf Score.

17What does the Personal Insights Studio learn?

It compares forecast-linked sessions with the conditions you actually reported, then shows supported patterns across wave height, board, wind quality, breaks and session quality. Small samples remain labelled as early signals. You can edit or delete any session, and the private calibration updates accordingly.

18Can an alert require a strong Your Fit score?

Yes. Once Your Fit is available, spot and regional alerts can require both a minimum Surf Score and a minimum Your Fit. This keeps the public forecast assessment separate from the personal match and prevents a personal preference from upgrading weak general conditions.

19Are alerts a guarantee that I should surf?

No. Alerts report that selected forecast conditions were matched. Delivery can be delayed and local hazards can change quickly. Official warnings, lifeguards, signage, water quality and your own assessment at the coast always take priority.

20Can I use SWELLRADAR without an account?

Yes. Forecasts, maps and break guides are available without signing in. An account synchronises saved spots, surf preferences and alert settings between sessions.

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